August 20, 2014
Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity from the SIDC
:Issued: 2014 Aug 20 0945 UTC
roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40820
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Aug 2014, 0908UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Aug 2014 until 22 Aug 2014)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2014 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2014 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2014 10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 004
COMMENT: There are 6 active regions on the visible side of the solar disk.
Only NOAA AR 12146 (in NE quadrant) has shown a significant growth in the
past 24 hours. We expect it will push up solar activity to C-class flaring
levels, though further growth in size, complexity and thus flaring levels
cannot be excluded. Note also that flaring activity is observed from behind
the NE solar limb. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected in the coming
3 days: there are no high speed wind streams expected from coronal holes,
nor are there any new CMEs on the way to the Earth. The arrival yesterday
(Aug 19) of the Aug 15 CME resulted in a Kp=6 episode. The Bz component of
the IMF has now turned fully Northward, thereby ending the geomagnetic
storm.
TODAY’S ESTIMATED ISN : 075, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Aug 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 111
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST : 020
ESTIMATED AP : 019
ESTIMATED ISN : 069, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center – RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
