July 27, 2013
Space Weather Report July 26, 2012
Space Weather – 3 day forecast
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2012 Jul 26 2200 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The only C-class flare of the reporting period was a C1 at 26/1953Z from new Region 1532 (S20E67). New flux emergence was observed in the northwest quadrant and was numbered as Region 1531 (N15W59). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a maximum flux of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and ended at 24/1800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (27 July). By mid to late on day 2 (28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active periods. Unsettled to active periods are expected on day 3 (29 July) due to the combined effects of the CH HSS and the 25 July coronal mass ejection. III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jul 115 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 000/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-011/015-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/25/35 Minor storm 01/10/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor storm 10/25/30 Major-severe storm 05/30/50
